The OceanScore Pool-Price Index (OPX) for Compliance Balance 2025 dropped sharply in March to €200 per ton of CO₂e, the lowest level observed since September 2025.
This development comes as a surprise to many market participants. Conversations with surplus-providing partners on OceanScore’s FuelEU Pooling Marketplace point to a clear explanation: there is currently significantly more surplus available than required by the market.
Surplus Supply Exceeds Demand
The surplus overhang anticipated earlier in the compliance year is now materialising.
Two developments are driving this:
-
The 2025 compliance year has now effectively closed from a reporting perspective, providing clarity on how much surplus can be offered to the market.
-
More surplus providers are entering the marketplace, and providers already active are offering larger volumes than previously anticipated.
As a result, the available supply of compliance surplus currently exceeds observable demand from deficit positions.
The OPX range for 2025 surplus offers now stands between €180 and €216 per ton of CO₂e, reflecting differences in volume and counterparties.
Spillover Effects Into 2026 Surplus
The decline in 2025 surplus prices has also affected pricing for Compliance Balance 2026.
Surplus that is not sold for the 2025 compliance year can be banked into 2026, effectively increasing the expected availability of surplus for the next compliance cycle.
At the same time, two structural factors continue to influence future surplus generation:
-
Increasing uptake of biofuels across fleets
-
FuelEU GHG intensity thresholds remaining unchanged
Together, these factors suggest that the overall surplus available for 2026 may exceed that of the previous year.
The OPX for 2026 compliance surplus currently stands at €197 per ton of CO₂e, with observable offers ranging between €175 and €210.
What This Means for the Market
Current price movements highlight an important dynamic in the FuelEU pooling market: supply conditions can shift rapidly once compliance balances become clearer.
With additional surplus entering the market and providers increasing offered volumes, pricing dynamics are currently being driven primarily by supply availability rather than deficit demand.
OceanScore will continue to monitor market activity and publish monthly OPX updates to support transparent, data-based decision making in the FuelEU pooling market.
Click here to learn more about OceanScore’s FuelEU Pooling Marketplace.
