The OceanScore Pool-Price Index (OPX) for Compliance Balance 2025 continued its downward trend in April, reaching €196 per ton of CO₂e, marking a multi-month low.
This development occurs in the final month in which 2025 surplus can be used for compliance, ahead of the pooling deadline on April 30, 2026.
Continued Surplus Oversupply
Current market conditions are characterised by a significant oversupply of compliance surplus.
Available volumes in the market remain high, and it is increasingly evident that not all surplus will be absorbed within the current compliance period.
Banking into Future Compliance Years
Given current conditions, substantial volumes of surplus are expected to be banked into the 2026 compliance year and beyond.
This is likely to further increase available supply in future periods and reinforce downward pressure on pricing.
Implications for Market Dynamics
If current trends continue:
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Banking surplus for future sale may become less attractive
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Finding buyers for surplus may become increasingly difficult
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Pricing pressure is expected to remain on the downside
At present, the FuelEU pooling market can be characterised as a buyer-driven market.
Outlook
The combination of surplus oversupply and the transition into the next compliance cycle suggests that current dynamics may persist in the near term.
OceanScore will continue to monitor OPX developments and FuelEU pooling activity closely and provide regular updates to support transparency in the market.
Click here to learn more about OceanScore’s FuelEU Pooling Marketplace.
