OceanScore’s OPX price for FuelEU Compliance Balances remained unchanged at €193 per ton of CO₂e in September – reflecting the bottoming out of prices expected by OceanScore’s analysis. Trading volumes have picked up after the summer break.
While larger volumes can be traded at attractive prices in the range of €170-175 per ton of CO2e, even smaller volumes are available at below €200. With few price changes compared to August, the current development confirms that prices may have reached a bottom.
As noted before, much of the surplus traded is “synthetic,” meaning it is only created after being sold. This option will end by year-end, which could push surplus prices higher towards the end of the year. The current stabilisation could be an early sign of this shift.
Currently, surplus supply is virtually unlimited and far greater than demand. Trading activity has picked up since the summer break, but growth remains constrained by the lack of standard Shipman and Charter Party clauses in contracts.
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